Significant Flooding Anticipated

St. Johns County announced a Tropical Storm Watch (see below) at 5pm today, just as the updated National Hurricane Center tracking showed another easterly shift in Hurricane Ian’s expected path, potentially bringing the center of the storm much closer to St. Augustine.

The county’s interpretation of the storm data suggests tropical storm wind gusts of 35-45 mph, potentially topping out at 80 mph.

The Hurricane Center has upped the potential rainfall along the coast to between 10 and 15 inches, a 50% increase from this morning’s forecast, largely due to the easterly shift Hurricane Ian is projected to take after making landfall as a major hurricane in the Tampa area on Thursday.

There will be significant flooding in our area, from the storm surge and rainfall extending from Wednesday into Saturday. Downtown St. Augustine is expected to be inundated. The system is expected to lose strength to a tropical storm once coming shore but continue to deluge north Florida with rain as it takes a bead on Georgia and the Carolinas.

Keep in mind, these forecasts are the best assessment weather experts have come up with, but weather systems often have a mind of their own. The direction and intensity of this storm could change, possibly significantly, in the next few days.

CLICK HERE for the Spoonbill Courier Hurricane Season Preparations page.

The National Hurricane Center is now predicting 10-15 inches of rain along the coast of St. Johns County.

Winds from Hurricane Ian will have their greatest and most destructive impact along Florida’s west coast, and potentially still have some punch left to create serious damage across north Florida.

Marsh Creek should begin experiencing tropical storm force winds or higher as early as Wednesday morning.

The St. Johns County 5PM Tropical Storm Watch Alert

COASTAL ST. JOHNS-
507 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2022
…STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT…
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT…
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, IS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
– PONTE VEDRA BEACH
– DURBIN
– PALM VALLEY
– ANASTASIA
– SAINT AUGUSTINE
* WIND
– LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: EQUIVALENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
– PEAK WIND FORECAST: 35-45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH
– WINDOW FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS: WEDNESDAY EVENING
UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR WIND 39
TO 57 MPH
– PLAN: PLAN FOR HAZARDOUS WIND OF EQUIVALENT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE.
– PREPARE: EFFORTS TO PROTECT PROPERTY SHOULD NOW BE
UNDERWAY. PREPARE FOR LIMITED WIND DAMAGE.
– ACT: ACT NOW TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS BEFORE THE WIND
BECOMES HAZARDOUS.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
– DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
– MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES
ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWNOVER.
– A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN
URBAN OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
– SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
* STORM SURGE
– LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE
– PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION: THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE WITHIN SURGE PRONE AREAS
– WINDOW OF CONCERN: WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR STORM
SURGE FLOODING GREATER THAN 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND
– PLAN: PLAN FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
GREATER THAN 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND.
– PREPARE: STORM SURGE FLOODING PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. ASSEMBLE DISASTER SUPPLIES AND KNOW YOUR
EVACUATION ROUTE.
– ACT: LEAVE IF EVACUATION ORDERS ARE GIVEN FOR YOUR AREA.
FAILURE TO HEED EVACUATION ORDERS MAY RESULT IN THE LOSS OF
YOUR LIFE.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT
– THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO STORM SURGE INUNDATION UP TO 6
FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
95 IN ST. JOHNS COUNTY.
– MAJOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE. LOW-LYING, GROUND LEVEL HOMES MAY BECOME
UNINHABITABLE FOR MONTHS AFTER THE STORM. OCEAN SURGE
FLOODING WILL REACH THE DUNE LINES IN THE LOWEST AREAS.
– OLD EL PINON INLET WILL LIKELY REOPEN AND MAJOR OVERWASH,
WITH POSSIBLE NEW CUTS, ARE EXPECTED AT VILANO BEACH
BETWEEN CARCABA ROAD AND MEADOW AVE. LOCATIONS AT AND NEAR
THE EXXON GAS STATION NEAR THE GUANA NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE WILL EXPERIENCE MAJOR OVERWASH. SURGE MAY REACH THE
PONTE VEDRA INN AND LODGE SEA WALL AND COMBINED WITH ROUGH
WAVE ACTION, STRUCTURE DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.
– FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN MOST, IF NOT ALL, INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY NEIGHBORHOODS. THOUSANDS OF GROUND LEVEL HOMES AND
STRUCTURES WILL EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE INUNDATION ALONG AND
NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND MAINLAND CREEKS. DAVIS
SHORES WILL BE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT, WITH UP TO 5 FEET OF
WATER IN THE STREETS, WITH STORM SURGE INUNDATION INTO THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF GROUND LEVEL HOMES. SIMILAR FLOODING WILL
OCCUR IN THE CITY OF SAINT AUGUSTINE WITH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
CITY EXPERIENCING STORM SURGE INUNDATION UP TO 5 FEET,
INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE BRIDGE OF LIONS. A FEW
HOMES ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND ALONG INLAND WATERWAYS IN THE ST. AUGUSTINE SHORES AREA COULD HAVE SOME
STORM SURGE INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET.
– THE SOUTHERN RUNWAYS OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL
AIRPORT WILL HAVE SURGE FLOODING UP TO 3 FEET IN DEPTH.
– FLOODING AT STATE ROAD 16 AND LEWIS SPEEDWAY WILL BE UP TO
4 FEET WITH UP TO 5 FEET OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION NEAR
LEWIS SPEEDWAY AND AVENUE D. LOW-LYING STREETS OF MARSH
LANDING AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY NEAR ROSCOE BLVD MAY
FLOOD UP TO 3 FEET.
– WILDLIFE INCLUDING REPTILES AND RODENTS ARE SEMI-AQUATIC
AND WILL BE LOOKING FOR HIGH GROUND TO ESCAPE STORM SURGE
AND RAINFALL FLOODING. SNAKES, RACCOONS AND SOME INSECTS
INCLUDING FIRE ANTS WILL SEEK HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND THIS
MAY INCLUDE HOMES SURROUNDED BY FLOOD WATER.
– THIS IS A SUMMARY OF SURGE IMPACTS. EVERY NEIGHBORHOOD THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING IS NOT MENTIONED. PLEASE HEED THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
* FLOODING RAIN
– LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
– PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: 10-15 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR
FLOODING RAIN
– PLAN: EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAJOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN. EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES ARE
LIKELY.
– PREPARE: STRONGLY CONSIDER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS, ESPECIALLY
IF YOU ARE IN AN AREA VULNERABLE TO FLOODING.
– ACT: HEED ANY FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FAILURE TO TAKE
ACTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF LIFE.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: EXTENSIVE
– MAJOR RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT MANY EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
– RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES
MAY BECOME DANGEROUS RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND
BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
– FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER MANY STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR
WASHED AWAY. MANY PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER
ESCAPE ROUTES. STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF
MOVING WATER WITH UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOME DANGEROUS. MANY ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME
WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.
* TORNADO- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
– SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES
– PLAN: EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TORNADOES.
– PREPARE: IF YOUR SHELTER IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO
TORNADOES, PREPARE TO RELOCATE TO SAFE SHELTER BEFORE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARRIVES.
– ACT: IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED, BE READY TO SHELTER
QUICKLY.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
– THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE
EXECUTION OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
– A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE, ALONG WITH
POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.
– LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS PEELED OFF BUILDINGS,
CHIMNEYS TOPPLED, MOBILE HOMES PUSHED OFF FOUNDATIONS OR
OVERTURNED, LARGE TREE TOPS AND BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF,
SHALLOW-ROOTED TREES KNOCKED OVER, MOVING VEHICLES BLOWN
OFF ROADS, AND SMALL BOATS PULLED FROM MOORINGS.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
– FAMILY EMERGENCY PLANS (FEMA): HTTP://READY.GOV/HURRICANES
– LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER