Usually, the second week of September is buzzing with tropical activity. This year, though, the Atlantic hurricane season is snoozing. Here’s why that’s happening and some perspective on what lies ahead.

By Jonathan Erdman•Weather Channel

The Tropical Atlantic is eerily quiet.

Typically the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the basin has instead drifted into a September slumber that could last at least into next week.

Blank, For Now

The map below shows areas the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for possible tropical development over the next seven days, along with the current satellite image.

This isn’t a trick. There are no areas of potential development on that map.

Peak Of The Season

This is happening during what historically has been the busiest week of hurricane season.

As the graph below shows, since World War II, mid-September has typically been the time of year with the most active Atlantic storms and hurricanes. The calculations pinpoint September 10 as the actual peak of the hurricane season.

That’s because September usually has the most favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop over the largest area of the Atlantic Basin, as we explained in a previous article.

One year ago this week, we were tracking Hurricane Francine approaching the Gulf Coast, a tropical depression that would soon become Gordon, and three other areas. And five years ago on Sept. 14, five systems of at least tropical depression strength were active at once, something that happened only once previously since 1971.

Not This Time

Instead, we have an Atlantic Basin that is on vacation for two main reasons.

First, significant swaths of dry air are pumping through the tropic’s Main Development Region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Dry air makes it difficult for thunderstorms to persist near any area of low pressure such as tropical waves that move westward off Africa during hurricane season. Without these basic building block thunderstorms, a tropical storm can’t form.

That’s what happened last weekend to a system we previously thought had a good chance of developing — Invest 91L — well east of the Lesser Antilles. It choked on dry air.

There are also some stubborn pockets of wind shear over the southwest, central and eastern Atlantic, as well as the Gulf. You can see these areas shaded in pink and maroon in the map below. Wind shear tends to either rip apart or blow thunderstorms away from any area of low pressure trying to organize.

Slow Pace

It has been 12 days since the last tropical storm, Fernand, and the 2025 hurricane season has now fallen behind the average pace.

We’re now about two storms and two hurricanes behind the average pace through the week of Sept. 7.

Using a metric called the ACE index — which doesn’t just count storms, but also how intense they become and how long they last — 2025 is about 25% slower than average right now.

We’ve been pretty fortunate, so far.

The season’s only hurricane so far, Erin, avoided a landfall, though it did bring flooding rain to the Leeward Islands, as well as coastal flooding, rip currents and some winds to the East Coast. Otherwise, it was three “fish storms” in the central Atlantic and two others that triggered inland flooding, Barry in Texas and Chantal in the Carolinas and Virginia.

Far From Over

As you may have noticed from the graph near the top of this article, there’s still plenty left this hurricane season.

Six additional storms, including four hurricanes, form in an average season from mid-September through November. Using the ACE index, over half of a season’s activity still lies ahead.

That activity can also develop quickly, especially closer to the U.S. and Caribbean.

And according to analyses from tropical scientist Brian McNoldy, Gulf water is record warm right now and it’s near record warm in the Caribbean Sea.

2022 A Cautionary Tale

Three years ago, August didn’t produce a single storm. It was the first “0 for August” in the Atlantic Basin in 25 years.

But then the dam burst. Eleven storms formed, including eight of the season’s nine hurricanes, from September through November 2022.

That included Hurricanes Ian and Nicole in Florida, and Fiona in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and its powerhouse remnant in Atlantic Canada.

This is a reminder to stay prepared for hurricane season, despite this heart of the season lull.